Commerce City, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

227
FXUS65 KBOU 090236
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
836 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through Saturday, with
  high temperatures reaching near record levels for Saturday.

- Critical fire weather conditions for much of the plains for
  Wednesday. Areas of elevated to critical possible through next
  weekend, mainly toward Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures and a chance of showers for early next week,
  but odds of any significant precipitation remain quite low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Winds have slackened for the majority of the lower elevations as
the boundary layer begins to decouple, with lingering breezy
conditions closer to the foothills and the Cheyenne Ridge. The
higher mountains are seeing gusts in the 50-55 mph range, and with
cross-barrier flow increasing around 10 kts overnight, opted to up
wind speeds through early Wednesday morning for areas near and
above timberline. No substantial changes were otherwise made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Gusty winds and low relative humidities remain across the northern
tier of the forecast area this afternoon. Patchy clouds have
allowed for uneven surface heating resulting in patchy warmer
spots. Areas where clouds are sparse have climbed a few degrees
above today`s expected high temps, while areas where clouds are
thicker have stayed a few degrees below the expected highs, but
widespread 70s are present across the plains, with the far
northeast corner nearing 80. The clouds have also hindered the
development of the gustier winds as forecast for portions of the
urban corridor and adjacent plains thus far. With a few more hours
of sunshine to go, we may still see some of the gusts push a tad
farther south.

After sunset tonight, we will see a quick improvement to this
afternoon`s critical fire weather conditions, as winds diminish
and relative humidities begin their recovery. We are expecting
enough cloud coverage through tonight to help keep temperatures
mild across the plains, and downsloping west winds will keep the
base of the foothills warmest. A weak cold front will slide south
across the northern plains, but overnight lows should still be a
few degrees warmer than last night`s.

Tomorrow`s main concern will be widespread critical fire weather
conditions across our lower elevations as enhanced WNW winds
gusting between 30 to 45 mph mixed with another day of above
normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for all of our lower elevations along and
north of I-70 beginning at 11 AM through 7 PM. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s/low 70s for the
plains, 50s for the foothills and mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Winds and critical fire weather conditions on the plains will
diminish early Wednesday evening. Thursday will still feature
northwest flow aloft, but low level gradients weaken for weaker
winds. We`ll also get a backdoor cold front to cool things off just
a couple more degrees, but high temperatures will still be a few
degrees above normal.

Friday and Saturday are still shaping up to be our warmest days of
the period as the upper level ridge shifts east across the Central
Rockies. There is very good agreement in the ensembles, with
temperatures reaching close to 80F for the plains on Friday, and
then mid 80s Saturday. That means we`ll be very close to, if not
exceeding, record high temperatures (Denver`s record for the 12th is
85 degrees set just two years ago in 2023).

There is still considerable uncertainty with when and how much we`ll
cool down for early next week. Ensemble spreads grow rapidly by
Sunday with 25th-75th percentile high temperatures for Denver and
the plains ranging from the lower 60s to lower 70s, and then down
into the upper 40s to upper 50s by Monday. It should be noted the
deterministic forecast lies on the upper range of these for now, but
could certainly trend higher or lower (lower favored for Monday) as
models eventually come into better agreement with timing and
evolution. We will also finally have a chance of precipitation
depending on how this next trough evolves. However, there are very
few models or ensemble members that show anything of significance.
It should be noted that some have it cold enough for some snow into
lower elevations by late Sunday night or Monday, but again any
precipitation is expected to be light at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 535 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Short period of WNW to NW winds will continue for the next 1-2 hrs
across the Denver metro with gusts 18-22 kts possible, before
weakening through the evening. Late evening and overnight, a weak
and dissipating backdoor front may produce quite VRB wind
directions, but speeds are anticipated to be light. Expect
stronger NW winds Wednesday, beginning to develop 18-20Z and
peaking after 21Z when gusts 30 kts or locally higher are
expected, especially due north of Denver and I-70.

All terminals will be VFR through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Surface winds will slacken and relative humidities will begin to
recover fairly quickly after sunset this evening, improving fire
weather conditions for tonight. With another day of above normal
temperatures and enhanced winds expected tomorrow, have issued a
Red Flag Warning including all of the plains along and north of
I-70 where wind gusts between 30-45 mph and relative humidities in
the mid teens are expected.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible mainly in South
Park on Thursday, but winds will be marginal for any critical
conditions.

More significant and potentially critical fire weather conditions
are more likely by Saturday and Sunday. The conditions on those days
will depend on how fast the next trough approaches (affecting
Saturday`s winds), and how fast the initial cold front moves through
(Sunday`s winds, temps, and RH). Cooler weather with higher humidity
is almost certain by next Monday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ238>240-
242>246-248>251.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rodriguez
SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Rodriguez
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch/Bonner